● Trump reiterated that tonight (Wednesday at 3:00 a.m. CET/Polish time) is the “deadline” for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz—otherwise, he threatens to destroy the country’s energy infrastructure. At the same time, he added that talks are “going well” and that he would like to reach an agreement—the market interprets this as a classic negotiating tactic.
● Iran has officially rejected the ultimatum, calling Trump’s threats “arrogant rhetoric,” but Axios reports that the U.S. views this response as a negotiating tactic, not a definitive closing of the door. Behind-the-scenes dialogue between the parties reportedly remains active, and Washington is keeping open the possibility of delaying military action if a credible path to a deal emerges.
● The Wall Street Journal revealed details of a secret rescue mission: the U.S. Air Force dropped 100 bombs, each weighing 900 kg, deploying 155 aircraft to secure the pilot of the downed F-15 and cut off the IRGC from the crash site. Several Iranian officers were killed during the operation.
● The Times has revealed a confidential memo indicating that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is unconscious in a hospital in the city of Kom and in critical condition. The report raises serious questions about the actual center of decision-making in Tehran amid the ongoing conflict.
● Saudi missile defenses shot down seven ballistic missiles targeting the eastern region of the country, near the strategic petrochemical hub in Jubail—a facility responsible for approximately 7% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP. Video footage suggests that some of the strikes may have hit ground targets, though official damage assessments are still underway.
● WTI breaks through the $115–116/bbl level, its highest in a month, as the deadline for Iran approaches and last week’s optimism fades. Brent (OIL CFD) gains 1.3% to $111, while WTI rises 2.4% to $115.20, marking a classic reaction by the energy market to the growing risk of further escalation and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
● U.S. stock index futures are edging lower ahead of the market open—S&P 500 futures are down about 0.5% amid growing uncertainty ahead of tonight’s deadline. European futures point to an opening near flat (+0.1%), after the Euro Stoxx 50 closed Thursday’s session down 0.7%.
● Samsung Electronics has released preliminary results for Q1 2026, showing an eightfold year-over-year increase in operating profit, beating analysts’ forecasts. This is a strong signal for the entire semiconductor sector—South Korea’s KOSPI is opening strongly, and the positive sentiment could spill over to semiconductor and technology companies in Europe and the U.S. (ASML, NVDA, INTC).
● The DXY is edging higher (+0.03% to 99.87), supported by rising oil prices and caution ahead of the Iran deadline. EURUSD is giving back some of its recent gains (-0.05% to 1.1537) following comments by ECB representative Stournaras that the monetary policy response will depend on “the scale and nature of the energy shock.”
