● Brent crude is rebounding 1.2% to approximately $97 per barrel in response to Iran’s distrust of the U.S. stance and continued Israeli attacks in the region. U.S. index futures are holding flat.
● The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire, deepening mutual mistrust. Tehran pointed to Israeli airstrikes and drone incidents, particularly in Lebanon—which in turn vowed to use all means to stop Israeli attacks. Washington rejected the allegations, with JD Vance emphasizing that the Lebanon issue was not part of the agreement.
● Trump stated that the US military remains fully mobilised in the region until the real agreement and opening of Hormuz are reached, threatening Iran should they leave the table.
● Sentiment in Asia is skeptical and cautious. After initial optimism, markets stalled due to doubts over the durability of the US-Iran truce. Concerns persist over the still-blocked Strait of Hormuz, the rebound in oil prices, and disputes regarding the inclusion of Lebanon in the terms of the deal. South Korea’s KOSPI (-1.8%) and Japan (-0.7%) saw the largest losses, with China (HSCEI: -0.3%) and India (Nifty 50: -0.6%) also in the red.
● According to RBNZ Governor Anna Breman, previous rate cuts still provide economic support, while the risk of higher inflation has increased. Her hawkish comments are driving gains in the New Zealand dollar, currently the most volatile G10 currency of the session (NZDUSD: +0.25%, NZDJPY: +0.4%, AUDNZD: -0.25%).
● Aside from the NZD, FX market volatility is subdued. The Dollar Index (USDIDX) is trading flat, and EURUSD is unchanged at 1.166. The Yen is seeing primary losses following lower-than-expected consumer sentiment data (USDJPY: +0.2%).
● Gold remains stagnant for the second consecutive session ($4,720 per ounce), uncertain amid the fragile Middle East ceasefire and hawkish Fed minutes, which have largely been drowned out by other events due to being “outdated.” Silver is also trading flat ($73 per ounce).
● Cryptocurrencies are predominantly down, though volatility remains limited: Bitcoin is losing 0.7% to $71,180, while Ethereum is down 1.2% to $2,191.
